Hail risk surges as solar expands: the pressing need for improved resilience
Prof Subhamoy Bhattacharya
Chief Scientific Officer
Renew Risk
Around the world, the renewable energy market is trapped in an endless battle with natural catastrophes (natcats) and extreme weather risk. For years, the US has found itself suffering the most casualties, with multiple hundred-million-dollar losses from the likes of hailstorms and severe convective storms (SCS) resulting in more than $850m of insured losses from 2008 to 2025. The renewable assets most at risk of natcats? It’s solar.
Losses to US solar farms are primarily caused by hailstorms. According to a 2025 assessment by kWh Analytics, hailstorms represent only 6% of loss incidents and yet account for 73% of financial losses – in some cases due to hailstones reaching 10cm or more in diameter, far exceeding the design tolerances of many solar assets.
Unfortunately, the story in Europe is a similar one. Figures from the European Severe Weather Database show that large hail was reported 10,173 times in 2024; a number that has steadily risen each year from only 2,257 events in 2014. Once again, solar farms are in the firing line, with up to 95% of solar losses in Europe caused by external perils.
Despite these figures and the plentiful accounts of damage, many countries around the world are ramping up their solar capacity. In 2024 alone, the US added 50GW of new capacity, representing the largest year of energy growth for any single energy class in the US in more than two decades. The Middle East – subjected to a spate of extreme weather in recent years – is likewise committing to increase its clean energy production capacity, with the UAE home to three of the largest solar power plants in the world and plans to add new sites and expand existing farms on the horizon.
6%
of loss incidents
73%
of financial losses
$850m
of insured losses
So how do we tackle the correlation between hailstorm increases and solar market growth?
First, a clear understanding of the assets themselves is essential. The type of solar panel matters greatly in terms of durability to hailstones. Glass-glass bifacial panels are generally known as the most durable to hail impact. But they're not impervious. A hailstorm in Texas in 2019 saw more than 400,000 modules at Midway Solar damaged, resulting in losses of over $70m. To minimise damage, some panels are mounted on trackers, which don’t just allow the panel to follow the sun, they also tilt to minimise damage during extreme weather events. Representing asset features such as this within risk modelling is key to accurately pricing risk.
Secondly, we need to acknowledge that without fixing the data gap, this pattern of hailstorm damage will continue. For older assets – like property – modellers like to warn that historical data isn’t enough to accurately price future risk due to climate change. But for solar farms, this disparity between past and future is, in some cases, impossible to use as a starting point because of just how new solar farms are. Without historical data, premiums for renewable assets are in some cases greatly overcautious – resulting in excess capital – and in others, these sites are vastly underinsured.
As solar energy continues to replace traditional power, reliability is fast becoming a global necessity. Unfortunately, extreme weather is now a permanent feature in the risk landscape. As a result, developers, brokers and financiers must take a more proactive approach to understand and mitigate natcat risks, from improved risk assessments to building more resilient infrastructure. Only with this collaboration can solar farms stand a chance at remaining operational for their intended lifespan.
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